The real estate market has been one of the strongest sectors of the economy for the past few years. However, the latest data from Jan 2023 in Collier and Lee counties has shown a slowdown in the market, leading to speculation about an incoming crash. In this blog post, we will analyze the data and determine whether a real estate market crash is imminent.
The number of homes sold has decreased significantly in both counties, with Collier experiencing a 36% YoY change and Lee experiencing a 21% YoY change. Despite this, the median sold price has increased by 4% in Collier and 2% in Lee. This suggests that while demand has decreased, the market is still holding up due to a shortage of supply.
One of the most concerning statistics is the days on the market. In Collier, the days on the market have increased by 72%, while in Lee, they have increased by 100%. This means that homes are taking much longer to sell, which is a sign of a sluggish market. However, there is some good news. New listings have increased by 4% in Collier and 9% in Lee. This means that there is still demand in the market, and homeowners are responding by listing their properties.
Another key indicator of the market’s health is the pending inventory. Unfortunately, this has decreased significantly in both counties, with Collier experiencing a 27% decrease and Lee experiencing a 29% decrease. This means that there are fewer homes under contract, which is a warning sign for the market. In addition, the months’ supply of inventory has increased drastically, with Collier experiencing a 275% increase and Lee experiencing a 220% increase. This suggests that the market is rapidly gaining inventory, which could lead to a drop in prices.
The dollar volume of real estate sales has decreased by 18% in Collier and 20% in Lee. While this is a concerning statistic, it’s important to note that this isn’t necessarily an indication of a market crash. Instead, it could simply be a reflection of the current market conditions. However, if this trend continues over a longer period, it could indicate a more significant problem.
In conclusion, the data from Jan 2023 in Collier and Lee counties suggests that the real estate market is slowing down. However, it’s there is far too much equity in the market to lead us to a crash. That being said, it’s important for homeowners, buyers, and investors to keep a close eye on the market in the coming months and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Brad Dohack, Broker/Owner at Gulf Pointe Properties, Team Lead
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